COP 30 ends: Amazon to Andaman, climate diplomacy is having a paradigm shift

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

The Indian Express
December 1, 2025

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/cop-30-amazon-to-andaman-climate-diplomacy-10395465

As COP 30 ended on Nov 21 in Belém, Brazil, its legacy is mixed. It is a moment of diplomatic reaffirmation, but also a sobering reminder of how far the divided global community still has to go.

This was the first time the world met in the Amazon rainforest, a region that embodies both development aspirations and ecological fragility. From the Amazon to the Andaman, the Global South’s most climate-vulnerable regions are becoming its diplomatic core, transforming exposure into influence.

Tripling adaptation finance, but no fossil fuel exit

The summit concluded with a landmark “Global Mutirão” agreement, in which wealthier nations committed to at least tripling adaptation finance by 2035 to help vulnerable countries respond to the climate impacts ahead. The final text avoided direct commitments on fossil fuels, instead leaning on broader language about a just transition. European officials voiced their disappointment. They had pushed for stronger emissions-cutting language, but were forced to settle for a compromise. Still, 194 countries jointly declared that the “global transition to low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilience is irreversible.”

One of the significant achievements was the formal launch of the Belém Health Action Plan, backed by the WHO. The plan emphasises integrating health objectives into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), investing in resilient infrastructure, and empowering community-led responses. The initiative secured $300 million from 35 philanthropic organisations.

While world leaders shook hands, protesters outside, particularly Indigenous groups, lamented the lack of a concrete fossil fuel phaseout and the slow pace of delivery on climate justice. Their message was loud and clear: Adapting to climate change is critical, but mitigation remains non-negotiable.

Global South’s blueprint for climate leadership

In Belém, over 100 hectares of forest were cleared for new infrastructure, reflecting the cost of hosting a climate summit in the rainforest. This balance between growth and stewardship defines the South’s new approach to climate leadership.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India’s most climate-vulnerable territories, exemplify this transformation. Rising seas threaten indigenous communities, while the islands’ 80 per cent forest cover and blue carbon ecosystems position them as critical natural assets in India’s climate strategy. India has emerged as a pivotal voice in this Southern coalition. The country’s National Hydrogen Mission and commitment to 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030 demonstrate that climate ambition need not wait for perfect finance; it can be built on determination and South-South collaboration.

For India, climate vulnerability is not abstract. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands face a projected sea-level rise of up to 60-110 cm by 2100, threatening not only infrastructure but the homeland of indigenous tribes like the Nicobarese and Great Andamanese. These islands also hold extensive mangroves and seagrass beds that sequester carbon far more efficiently than terrestrial forests, a blue carbon asset that could anchor India’s climate-finance negotiations if properly valued and protected.

Across the South, countries are co-creating frameworks for the next generation of climate governance. Brazil’s new carbon-market law blends regulated and voluntary systems, while India and Indonesia are advancing renewable transitions. These moves signal a shift in leverage. The South is no longer just following climate rules; it is helping write them. The April 2025 Brazil-India Climate Dialogue, which mapped cooperation on green hydrogen, energy storage, and the circular economy, shows how shared experience becomes shared capability. This collaboration extends to technology, the decisive frontier of climate ambition.

What is emerging is less a call for aid than a design for autonomy. Brazil has halved deforestation since 2023, India is adding 22 GW of renewables, and Indonesia aims for 35 per cent renewable electricity by 2034. Brazil’s proposed $125 billion Tropical Forests Forever Facility captures both promise and risk. Hailed as a breakthrough in valuing ecosystem services, it also raises concerns over commercialisation and local exclusion.

Brazil, after its G20 presidency and now after hosting COP 30, has already used its convening power to advance debates on global tax reform and the restructuring of development banks. Meanwhile, India’s renewable energy transformation and Indonesia’s commitment to a just transition demonstrate that climate leadership can be inclusive, growth-oriented, and grounded in regional realities.

Looking toward and beyond the Andaman

COP 30 marked more than a summit. It signalled a tectonic shift in climate diplomacy. The paradigm has shifted from North-led prescription to South-driven innovation, from aid dependency to collaborative autonomy, from pledges to delivery. The tripling of adaptation finance and the Belém Health Action Plan represent tangible wins, yet the absence of a fossil fuel phaseout underscores unfinished business. What emerges is a new climate architecture where countries like Brazil, India, and Indonesia aren’t waiting for permission to lead; they’re building renewable capacity, halving deforestation, and creating carbon markets on their own terms.

For India specifically, this paradigm shift opens strategic possibilities: Leveraging the Andaman Islands’ blue carbon assets in climate negotiations, channelling adaptation finance toward coastal resilience, and positioning Indian green technology at the centre of a multi-trillion-dollar global transition.

As climate diplomacy pivots from Belém to future gatherings, perhaps one day in the Andaman, the measure of success will be clear: not the eloquence of Northern commitments, but the tangible impact of Southern solutions. The paradigm has shifted. Now comes the test of whether shifted paradigms can shift temperatures.