Beijing flexes its military might in South Asia and beyond

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
May 27, 2025

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3311719/beijing-flexes-its-military-might-south-asia-and-beyond

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The scale and intensity of the four-day India-Pakistan conflict beginning on May 7 was marked by the battlefield debut of China’s advanced military technology. At the onset of the conflict, US Vice-President J.D. Vance stated that the situation was “fundamentally none of our business”. But, in a dramatic reversal, US President Donald Trump soon announced that his administration had brokered a “historic ceasefire” between India and Pakistan.

While India and Pakistan were still exchanging fire, the true victor was China, whose military technology transformed the conflict into a global moment of significance for its arms industry.

After much speculation about its military capacity, Chinese defence tech has arrived on the global stage. The Pakistan Air Force fielded Chinese J-10C fighter jets and JF-17 planes – jointly developed by China and Pakistan – armed with Chinese PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles. India used its French fighters and Israeli Harop drones, a line-up many, until now, considered technologically superior.

Reports suggest that at least one French-made Rafale was downed by a missile shot from a Chinese-made J-10. The BBC authenticated images of the wreckage. The possibility of a French Rafale being downed by a Chinese J-10 sent shock waves through the Western military hardware industry. Even financial markets responded to the performance of Chinese military weapons as shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the state-owned manufacturer of the JF-17 and J-10C, soared by 36 per cent within two days.

China reportedly provided Pakistan with significant battlefield advantages through realignment of air defence radar systems and satellite surveillance support which allowed Pakistan to monitor Indian troop movements and aerial deployments with precision. This elevated Pakistan’s situational awareness and operational readiness, an advantage India did not seem to enjoy.

The extent of coordination between China and Pakistan has set alarm bells ringing for both India and its Western partners, including the US which had earlier provided Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets. Anonymous US officials cited by Reuters claim F-16s were not used in the conflict, despite reports to the contrary. However, what is likely even more unsettling for the US is the implication that the conflict may have served as a proxy testing ground for China’s military capabilities, especially in the event of a future confrontation over Taiwan.

Simultaneously, a significant development took place in Geneva, Switzerland, where the US and China held trade talks. After the US raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 145 per cent in April, and China reciprocated with tariffs of 125 per cent on US imports, the US agreed in Geneva to slash tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent and China reduced its tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent, lifting a US$600 billion trade freeze.

This raises the possibility that the US-mediated de-escalation of the Indo-Pakistan conflict could have been driven by America’s strategic and economic concerns as continuation of the conflict could have worked in favour of China’s public relations campaign. Many interpreted the Geneva talks as a sign that unquestioned American dominance may be waning in the face of China’s expanding military capabilities and economic resilience.

As the world has been busy with conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, China has been deepening its strategic influence and challenging US dominance by offering governments alternative military partners and, in some cases, forming strong military ties in regions where others would be hesitant to tread.

China’s growing presence near maritime choke points, from Africa to Asia, could limit the ease of US manoeuvres, complicating power projection in potential conflict zones in the Indo-Pacific or Middle East. In a crisis, China could exploit these dispersed access points to disrupt US operations or logistics.

China has significantly expanded its global military influence through arms sales, joint exercises, security diplomacy and infrastructure linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.

In Africa, China has enhanced its capabilities at its base in Djibouti, constructing a large pier for naval operations. It has reportedly trained thousands of soldiers from the continent and is now the leading arms supplier in sub-Saharan Africa. China supplies military vehicles to countries in the Sahel like Burkina Faso. It has been reported that China has pursued base access in Equatorial Guinea.

In the Middle East, China has supplied armed drones and missile technology to Saudi Arabia and conducted naval drills with Iran. Reports suggest it attempted to construct a military facility in the United Arab Emirates’ port of Khalifa which the US intervened to stop. The UAE reportedly considered Chinese-made jets after a potential F-35 deal with the US stalled. Egypt has deepened its security ties with China through joint air exercises amid speculation that it is looking to acquire J-10C fighters.

In Asia, China embedded itself militarily in Pakistan by delivering frigates, tanks, air defence systems and co-producing JF-17 fighter jets. Bangladesh has received Chinese corvette-class warships. Cambodia has allowed China to build facilities at Ream Naval Base, enabling naval access to the Gulf of Thailand. China has reportedly received approval from Tajikistan to build a counterterrorism base near Afghanistan.

China’s expanding military presence and arms diplomacy across continents point towards a shift from a regional power to a global competitor. The recent India-Pakistan conflict was a live-fire commercial and strategic demonstration of Chinese military hardware.

While the spark of the war started in Kashmir, the real winner was Beijing. The conflict was a stage for China to display the effectiveness of its military prowess while diplomatically challenging the West and its dominance in the arms race. Chinese arms suppliers have turned into global contenders in the billion-dollar arms industry.